International traders welcomed Nigeria’s current macroeconomic reforms however flagged persistent issues about oil worth volatility, capital repatriation dangers, and excessive transaction prices throughout a non-public investor discussion board hosted by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on the Nasdaq MarketSite in New York on April 17, 2025.
The occasion, themed “The Nigeria Funding Agenda: Pathways for Progress & International Partnerships,” was held in collaboration with NGX Group, J.P. Morgan and AVCA.
It attracted representatives from high international {financial} establishments, together with Citi, JPMorgan Chase, Normal Chartered, and Jadara Capital Companions.
Though the CBN’s reform agenda was broadly acknowledged as a step in the best path, international traders made it clear that sustained investor confidence will rely upon Nigeria’s capability to handle key structural and exterior dangers, particularly oil market volatility.
Joyce Chang, Chair of International Analysis at JPMorgan Chase, counseled Nigeria for making progress on long-standing structural points, together with the removing of gas subsidies and FX liberalisation.
Nevertheless, she famous that the worldwide atmosphere had modified considerably, citing U.S. tariff hikes and the next danger of recession.
“We’re now coping with a possible 3% of GDP tax impact from current U.S. tariffs,” Chang mentioned. “Nigeria has made strides, however oil worth volatility stays a key danger.”
JPMorgan now locations the chance of a U.S. recession at 60%, up from 40% earlier than the brand new tariffs have been introduced.
Oil costs, a key supply of Nigerian income, are anticipated to fall into the $50s vary by 2026. This dynamic, Chang mentioned, introduces macroeconomic fragility that traders should worth in.
For some traders, nevertheless, the give attention to oil worth dangers could also be shedding relevance. Razia Khan, Chief Economist for Africa and the Center East at Normal Chartered, argued that Nigeria’s current reforms—particularly round FX—have created a platform for lowered dependence on oil.
“Nigeria is lastly at some extent the place it would be capable of break away from the oil cycle,” Khan mentioned. “We now have a extra aggressive change fee and a construction that might help actual wealth creation outdoors oil.”
She added that investor issues about repatriation and macro stability are being addressed by FX reform and financial tightening, however urged policymakers to remain the course.
“Structural reforms take time. Nigeria is just simply firstly of a reputable path towards diversification,” she mentioned.
Jason Rekate, International Co-Head of Company Banking at Citi, mentioned investor curiosity in Nigeria is rising sharply in comparison with current years, pushed primarily by FX reforms that now permit capital inflows and outflows with higher transparency.
“It’s a unique dialog now. Nigeria is now not on the ‘penalty field’ checklist,” Rekate mentioned. “Purchasers are asking how quickly they will enter, not if.”
Regardless of this shift, Rekate famous that international sentiment remains to be fragile and that oil stays a “transmission channel” for exterior shocks into the Nigerian economic system.
A worldwide recession, he warned, would renew strain on the naira and take a look at the sturdiness of Nigeria’s new FX regime.
Ahmad Zuaiter, Co-Founder and CIO of Jadara Capital Companions, additionally welcomed Nigeria’s reform momentum however burdened that important frictions stay in its capital markets.
“Two years in the past, just about no portfolio traders have been energetic in Nigeria as a result of capital controls,” he mentioned. “Right this moment, that has modified, however prices stay prohibitive.”
Zuaiter cited common transaction prices of two–3% for listed equities in Nigeria, in comparison with 10–15 foundation factors in Saudi Arabia or Egypt. He attributed a lot of this to regulatory inefficiencies and levies corresponding to stamp duties.
He additionally urged Nigerian regulators to offer firmer assurances on market stability. “Capital controls, FX restrictions, and circuit breakers on shares have been used too typically prior to now. Buyers want credible indicators that these days are over,” he mentioned.
Regardless of short-term issues, panellists agreed that Nigeria’s demographics, useful resource base, and reform momentum make it one of many extra engaging frontier markets for long-term traders.
Normal Chartered’s Khan referenced the nation’s rising inhabitants and up to date census train as indicators of future shopper market scale.
“Nigeria may grow to be the third most populous nation by 2050,” she mentioned. “International traders haven’t totally positioned for that development.”
Joyce Chang strengthened the view that Nigeria is turning into extra mainstream in rising market funding discussions.
“We had Nigeria as a high advice for 18 months,” she mentioned. “Whereas near-term warning persists as a result of oil, Nigeria’s structural shift is being observed.”
All through the discussion board, international traders have been clear about what they wanted from Nigeria to unlock additional inflows:
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) moved to unify the a number of change fee home windows, transitioning towards a extra market-reflective system. This included the removing of restrictions on FX transactions, permitting demand and provide dynamics to play a higher position in fee willpower.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) moved to unify the a number of change fee home windows, transitioning towards a extra market-reflective system. This included the removing of restrictions on FX transactions, permitting demand and provide dynamics to play a higher position in fee willpower.
Because the reforms, the naira has skilled important volatility however started to stabilize in early 2025 following a sequence of financial tightening measures and improved FX market transparency. For many of Q1 2025, the change fee held regular, with improved investor sentiment and better FX inflows by formal channels.
