Analysts at Optimum World have projected that the naira will commerce between N1,500 and N1,600 within the second half of 2025, assuming constructive macroeconomic circumstances persist.
This forecast was shared of their newly launched half-year funding outlook report titled “Anchored Coverage, Unanchored Dangers”, which additionally provided projections for inflation and capital market efficiency.
Based on the agency, the naira has stayed comparatively secure as a result of the Central {Bank} stepped in with focused assist, including liquidity when wanted, particularly throughout occasions of excessive volatility within the international oil market.
“The second quarter started with forex weak point, triggered by falling crude oil costs and excessive demand for international alternate. Nonetheless, the CBN’s lively interventions—resembling greenback gross sales within the spot market—helped stabilize the FX price,” the report famous.
Optimum World additionally famous that Nigeria’s exterior reserves rose to round $38.5 billion in the course of the quarter, giving the Central {Bank} extra room to handle volatility and cushion the financial system towards market shocks.
This, they defined, helped maintain the naira buying and selling inside the N1,530–N1,600 vary, regardless of swings in oil costs which might have affected the forex if not for the measures.
The report additionally famous that sustaining ample reserves and continued efforts by the CBN to stabilize the market shall be key to retaining the naira secure, simply because it was in H1 2025.
The naira held comparatively regular towards the greenback within the first half of 2025, whilst international oil costs swung sharply in the course of the interval.
Nonetheless, from February to April, the story modified. The naira steadily weakened, falling to N1,596/$ by the top of April.
Information of elevated oil provide pushed costs decrease, and the naira weakened in response.
Nonetheless, issues took a flip from Could by means of June. Oil costs started climbing once more, crossing $66 per barrel, whereas Nigerian grades traded above $70.
As oil costs spiked, so did the naira. By the top of June, it had strengthened to round N1,530/$, gaining about 3% from its April low.
Analysts famous that the naira’s restoration was not solely as a consequence of rising oil costs but additionally supported by the Central {Bank}’s greenback gross sales, which helped maintain the forex secure throughout March and April.
On April 4, 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) injected $197.71 million into the international alternate (FX) market as a part of its ongoing efforts to spice up liquidity and maintain the market functioning easily.
This transfer got here in response to rising international {economic} pressures affecting many rising and growing economies, together with Nigeria.
To counter this, the CBN’s intervention aimed to stabilize the naira.
By injecting {dollars} into the market, the {Bank} elevated provide and eased demand pressures, lowering the necessity for extra naira to purchase one greenback and serving to to alleviate strain on the native forex.
