Renaissance Capital initiatives that with steady coverage implementation, manufacturing might return to over two million barrels per day by 2026, serving to to stabilize fiscal revenues and strengthen Nigeria’s international trade buffers.
This development, in keeping with a report by the corporate, is to be pushed by the implementation of the Petroleum Business Act (PIA), renewed investments, and a gradual rebalancing of possession between worldwide and indigenous operators.
The report reveals how coverage reforms, elevated capital expenditure, and the rise in lively rig counts have collectively reignited confidence within the sector, positioning Nigeria for sustainable medium-term restoration.
“The trajectory of rig exercise alerts that the constructing blocks for development are being put in place,” Renaissance Capital analysts wrote. “If maintained, this upward pattern supplies a reputable pathway for Nigeria to fulfill and even exceed medium-term manufacturing targets.”
Oil manufacturing in Nigeria has struggled since its 2005 peak of two.4 million barrels per day, with declines exacerbated by underinvestment, safety points, and the COVID-19 pandemic. Output fell from 1.74 million barrels per day in 2019 to simply 1.14 million in 2022.
Nonetheless, Renaissance Capital notes that upstream funding is regaining momentum. Energetic rig counts — a key indicator of exploration exercise — rose from the low 30s in early 2024 to round 40 by September 2025, a stage not seen in years.
This development, the report states, is supported by the Petroleum Business Act (PIA), which consolidated Nigeria’s fragmented authorized framework right into a clear and aggressive regime. The Act launched tax incentives, decreased bureaucratic bottlenecks, and created impartial regulators to supervise upstream and downstream operations.
“The PIA lowers efficient tax charges and protects traders from retroactive fiscal adjustments,” the report famous. “This enhances predictability and boosts Nigeria’s attractiveness relative to its African friends.”
In keeping with Renaissance Capital, the continued divestment of onshore property by worldwide oil corporations (IOCs) has allowed indigenous producers to take a bigger position in upstream actions. This shift, mixed with funding in infrastructure such because the Dangote Refinery and main fuel pipelines, is reshaping the sector.
The report highlights a number of key coverage directives carried out in 2024–2025, together with sooner challenge approval cycles, tax holidays for fuel infrastructure, and cost-efficiency incentives to reward low-cost producers.
Nigeria’s gentle, candy crude stays in excessive demand, and the commissioning of the Dangote Refinery — supported by the Home Crude Provide Obligation — is predicted to sharply cut back refined gas imports and enhance international trade stability.
Renaissance Capital initiatives that with steady coverage implementation, manufacturing might return to over two million barrels per day by 2026, serving to to stabilize fiscal revenues and strengthen Nigeria’s international trade buffers.
Whereas international oil costs are anticipated to average, Nigeria’s renewed deal with fuel growth, improved operational effectivity, and stronger regulatory oversight present a pathway for resilience.
“The outlook for Nigeria’s oil and fuel sector stays broadly optimistic,” Renaissance Capital said. “Structural reforms, rising native participation, and increasing midstream capability are creating the muse for a extra balanced and investable business.”
Nairametrics lately reported that the Nigerian Oil and Fuel sector surged greater than 5% in early October, placing it inside attain of breaking via the two,700-point resistance stage.
Tracked by the NGX Oil/Fuel Index, the sector opened the month at 2,523.1 factors and climbed to 2,664.0 factors as of October 8, 2025, sustained by Aradel, Seplat, and Eterna.
This marks a gradual restoration from a chronic downtrend that started after the index hit a excessive of two,712 factors in December 2024.
