Buyers have continued to reassess the banking sector amid ongoing recapitalization efforts and different macro-economic variables.
The main target at this time is on UBA and FirstHoldco; two of the Tier-1 banks and members of the FUGAZ group have each delivered robust earnings in recent times, however with various threat profiles and progress methods.
As of October 20, 2025, UBA’s shares have gained 26.3% year-to-date (YtD), buying and selling at N42.95, which represents about 85% of its 52-week excessive.
FirstHoldco, then again, has recorded a 15.9% YtD achieve, closing at N32.50, and at present sits 75% beneath its 52-week excessive.
Nevertheless, each shares have underperformed the broader market index, which has superior 45.68% YtD. Final 12 months, UBA returned 33% YtD, whereas FirstHoldco returned 19% YtD.
{Financial} efficiency and earnings power
Each UBA and FirstHoldCo have maintained constant earnings over the previous 5 years, although 2025 has seen some strain from honest worth losses, impairment losses, and working bills.
Even so, each lenders have benefited from Nigeria’s high-yield surroundings, which continues to drive curiosity earnings progress throughout the banking sector.
UBA closed H1 2025 with a pre-tax revenue of N388.413 billion, representing a 3.28% year-on-year decline from H1 2024.
FirstHoldCo, in the meantime, reported a pre-tax revenue of N356.1 billion for H1 2025, down 13.4% year-on-year, additionally attributable to honest worth losses of N69.7 billion, in comparison with a achieve of N423.9 billion in H1 2024.
Over a five-year horizon, FirstHoldCo has grown quicker on the backside line, accumulating N1.35 trillion in PAT at a compound annual progress fee (CAGR) of 49%.
However, UBA carried out higher in absolute numbers accumulating revenue of N1.78 trillion however at a CAGR of 46.5%.
Verdict:
Valuation overview
Whereas each UBA and FirstHoldCo have carried out nicely, they now sit at totally different valuation levels.
valuation, UBA’s P/E ratio of 1.98x means buyers are paying N1.98 for each N1 it earns, whereas FirstHoldco’s P/E of two.08x means buyers are paying N2.08 for each N1 of earnings.
This exhibits that UBA is barely cheaper, providing higher present worth, whereas FirstHoldco trades at a small premium as a result of buyers anticipate it to develop quicker.
Nevertheless, with the anticipated dilution from their recapitalization, each banks’ earnings per share (EPS) will probably decline in 2025. This might make their valuations look a bit increased (much less low-cost).
Based mostly on valuation and earnings outlook, UBA stays the higher purchase for now, it’s cheaper on a P/E foundation, has stronger present earnings (EPS N8.86 in H1 2025), and faces much less dilution threat from recapitalization. This provides it higher near-term worth and stability.
FirstHoldco, then again, might provide better long-term upside. Its barely increased P/E ratio displays buyers’ perception in its quicker earnings progress potential.
Wanting again at 2024 efficiency, UBA demonstrated stronger threat administration and earnings stability, mirrored in its decrease value of threat (3.18%) and NPL ratio (5.6%), despite the fact that its ROAE moderated to twenty-eight%.
FirstHoldco, then again, delivered a powerful rebound in profitability, with ROAE at 29.8% up 32% year-on-year, however this got here with increased credit score threat, as proven by its elevated value of threat (4.7%) and NPL ratio (10.2%).
That mentioned, the 2025 {financial} 12 months may shift the dynamics solely, particularly with ongoing recapitalization efforts, financial coverage modifications, and overseas trade volatility.
If each banks maintain their 2024 momentum:
Whole shareholder return perspective
From a complete return standpoint, UBA continues to outperform. It at present provides a dividend yield of seven.57%, and when mixed with its 26.32% YtD achieve, buyers have earned a complete return of 33.89% in 2025.
FirstHoldco, in contrast, provides a dividend yield of 1.85% and a capital achieve of 15.86%, translating to a complete return of 17.71%.
General, each banks stay strong performs in Nigeria’s {financial} sector, however their attraction differs:
General, each banks stay strong performs in Nigeria’s {financial} sector, however their attraction differs:
