Nigeria’s economic system is progressively rising from a tough reform section and is now being repositioned for stronger and extra sustainable progress, based on Segun Alebiosu, Managing Director and Chief Govt of First Bank of Nigeria, and Dr Yemi Kale, Group Chief Economist at Afreximbank.
Talking on the FirstBank 2026 Nigerian {Economic} Outlook session, Alebiosu mentioned the advantages of ongoing {economic} reforms have been changing into more and more seen throughout costs, market confidence and sectoral resilience, after a interval of serious adjustment.
“I’m certain we’re all seeking to 2026 for a number of causes. One, that the {economic} reform that’s underway will speed up throughout the 12 months, as a result of we’ve got seen the tough half and we’re seeing the profit,” Alebiosu mentioned.
He described Nigeria’s latest macroeconomic expertise as proof of an economic system adapting fairly than breaking underneath strain, regardless of forex changes, inflation shocks and world uncertainty.
“Regardless of macroeconomic pressures, forex adjustment, evolving providers, shifting commerce dynamics and world uncertainty, our economic system continues to display resilience throughout sectors. We’ve seen innovation, enterprise and reform taking root. These usually are not indicators of fragility, they’re alerts of an economic system repositioning itself,” Alebiosu mentioned.
In his keynote handle titled “The Nice Recalibration: Mastering Resilience in an Period of Asynchronous Development”, Dr Yemi Kale mentioned Nigeria was benefiting from a broader world shift wherein progress, inflation and capital flows have been not transferring in sync, creating each dangers and alternatives for reforming economies.
“The worldwide economic system is not transferring in sync. Development, inflation, coverage and capital flows at the moment are asynchronous, reshaping danger, alternative and technique. There is no such thing as a common coverage path or funding playbook. Resilience, credibility and flexibility now outline winners,” Kale mentioned.
He famous that Nigeria was starting to see the advantages of tighter financial coverage, international alternate reforms, and improved commerce dynamics, with inflation easing and confidence progressively returning to the markets.
“Nigeria is experiencing sustained disinflation, international alternate stability, enhancing commerce stability and market confidence,” he mentioned, including that the primary financial coverage easing in 5 years signalled a turning level. “This disinflation credibility enabled the primary coverage price lower in 5 years and anchors the 2026 outlook.”
In response to Kale, headline inflation had declined sharply from earlier highs, supported by improved foreign exchange liquidity and easing provide aspect pressures, whereas foreign exchange unification had strengthened transparency and diminished volatility.
“Market-driven price formation has changed administrative pricing, enhancing transparency and investor belief. Month-to-month foreign exchange volatility is now trending beneath 4 p.c, reflecting stronger inflows and higher liquidity administration.”
On progress, Kale mentioned Nigeria’s economic system was changing into extra diversified than typically portrayed, with providers now accounting for the biggest share of output, at the same time as oil remained essential for international alternate and financial revenues.
“Nigeria is extra diversified than the oil narrative suggests. Oil’s macro weight is small in GDP however massive for FX and the funds. Providers now anchor Nigeria’s progress momentum, pushed by funds, digital commerce, ICT, logistics and wholesale and retail actions.”
Trying forward, the FirstBank MD mentioned Nigeria’s competitiveness would more and more be formed by demographics, expertise, local weather priorities and regional commerce integration, significantly underneath the African Continental Free Commerce Space.
“Waiting for 2026 and past, the alternatives earlier than us are huge. For Nigeria, success will rely on disciplined reforms, funding in human capital, scalable infrastructure and powerful {financial} intermediation.”
He reaffirmed FirstBank’s dedication to supporting the subsequent section of progress, noting the establishment’s lengthy historical past of navigating {economic} cycles. “At FirstBank, resilience is just not a slogan. It’s a legacy spanning over 130 years. As we speak, we stay deeply dedicated to being the establishment of selection, trusted, capital robust, digitally enabled and positioned to associate Nigeria’s subsequent section of progress.”
