The Nigerian Naira settled at N1,364 to $1 within the official market final week.
Latest elementary actions confirmed the CBN has been extra aggressive, promoting {dollars} on to approved sellers to forestall the speed from falling again towards January’s N1,450/$ stage.
The outlook for this week stays cautiously bullish.
The Nigerian foreign money is anticipated to settle between N1,350/$1 and N1,420/$1 within the official market by the tip of this week.
Whereas the Naira has strengthened barely over the previous 7 days (a couple of 2% achieve from the N1,390/$1 stage seen earlier this month), it nonetheless faces arbitrage stress.
Purchase/promote vary reported round N1,440/$1 for purchase and N1,450/$1–1,460/$1 on the black market prior to now week.
The Naira has strengthened notably in current weeks or months (4.24% over the previous month and about 9.15% over the past 12 months in some measures), shifting away from the all-time highs close to N1,717/$ in late 2024.
The Nigerian Apex {Bank} maintained excessive rates of interest to soak up extra liquidity, however the precise affect on the trade fee is considerably muted by robust demand for imports.
The Central Bank of Nigeria is successfully “mopping up” extra Naira by retaining the Financial Coverage Charge at such stage. Speculators discover it extra expensive to borrow Naira to purchase {dollars}, supporting the steadiness of the N1,364/$1 trade fee.
The “Dangote Impact“: As of early 2026, the elevated output from the Dangote Refinery—which is nearing 700,000 barrels per day—has considerably diminished the overseas trade demand beforehand used for petroleum imports.
All eyes are on the NAFEM window (official market). If the Nigerian Central {Bank} fails to inject sufficient {dollars} this week, market members may see the unfold widen on the parallel market, placing stress on the official fee to catch up.
The development nonetheless leans towards minor depreciation towards the weekend as corporations settle their weekly foreign exchange commitments, except there’s a main announcement about overseas reserve will increase or vital mortgage inflows.
General, the Naira is powerful in early 2026 and is gaining floor because of exterior inflows and coverage changes.
Market observers keep cautiously optimistic about continued stability regardless of the return of elevated volatility within the world foreign exchange market.
The US Greenback Index (DXY), which compares the US greenback towards six main currencies, misplaced floor for the second consecutive session. It’s at present buying and selling round 97.50.
The greenback struggles as merchants undertake a cautious stance forward of key {economic} knowledge postponed as a result of partial authorities shutdown. The January jobs report, scheduled for Wednesday, is anticipated to indicate a stabilized labor market, with Nonfarm Payrolls forecasted so as to add 70,000 jobs and the unemployment fee anticipated to stay regular at 4.4%.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed the concept that he and Donald Trump have opposing views on the foreign money, following Trump’s current remarks concerning the greenback’s decline and Bessent’s assist of a “robust greenback coverage.”
