Tinubu’s Government At 3: Nigerians Pass Verdict

Mixed reactions as Nigerians assess the president after three years in office

BY MARK ITSIBOR, ABUJA, YUSUF BABALOLA, OLUSHOLA BELLO AND KINGSLEY OKOH, LAGOS

Three years after President Bola Ahmed Tinubu took the oath of office at Eagle Square in Abuja, Nigerians remain sharply divided over the legacy of his administration’s sweeping economic reforms — with experts, critics and citizens offering starkly contrasting assessments of a presidency defined by bold policy choices and painful consequences.

On 29 May 2023, Tinubu delivered what would become perhaps the most consequential three words in recent Nigerian history: “Subsidy is gone.”

That declaration set in motion a chain of reforms — fuel subsidy removal, foreign exchange liberalisation, banking sector recapitalisation and fiscal restructuring — that have simultaneously drawn praise for macroeconomic stabilisation and condemnation for the suffering they imposed on ordinary citizens.

The statistical record of the past three years is a study in contrasts. On the one hand, GDP growth reached 3.85 per cent in 2025, foreign reserves climbed above $50 billion for the first time in years, and Nigeria recorded consecutive trade surpluses as domestic refining reduced petrol imports. Inflation, which peaked above 34 per cent in 2024 — the highest in nearly three decades — began easing by early 2026.

On the other hand, public debt surged from approximately N87 trillion in 2023 to over N159 trillion by the end of 2025. The naira lost more than half its value within months of the foreign exchange reforms, falling from around N460 to the dollar in May 2023 to over N1,600 by July 2024.

The World Bank estimates that roughly 140 million Nigerians now live below the poverty line, with food inflation peaking at 40.9 per cent in June 2024.

Reform Necessary, But at What Cost?

As the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu administration marked its third year in office on Friday, economists continued to debate the impact of key policies introduced since May 2023.

Some have described the period as one of far-reaching economic reforms marked by painful adjustments, improving macroeconomic indicators and lingering pressure on household living conditions.

Professor of Capital Market at Nasarawa State University, Keffi, Prof. Uche Uwaleke, said the Tinubu administration confronted longstanding structural weaknesses that previous governments had avoided due to political sensitivity.

According to him, the administration inherited an economy burdened by fiscal instability, foreign-exchange distortions, rising inflation,  and unsustainable fuel subsidy payments.

“When President Tinubu assumed office in May 2023, Nigeria’s economy was weighed down by multiple crises,” Uwaleke said in a commentary assessing the administration’s performance.

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that inflation stood at 22.41 per cent in May 2023, while the Monetary Policy Rate was 18.5 per cent. Nigeria’s unemployment rate, based on the revised methodology introduced in 2023, stood at 4.1 per cent in Q1 2023, although underemployment and vulnerabilities in the informal sector remained widespread.

Nigeria’s public debt stock was about N87.38 trillion when the administration took office in 2023, while the country’s Human Capital Index remained among the lowest globally at about 0.36, reflecting weak education and healthcare outcomes.

Three years later, inflation has moderated to 15.68 per cent as of April 2026 after peaking above 30 per cent during the early phase of the reforms. The Monetary Policy Rate currently stands at 27.5 per cent following the Central Bank’s aggressive tightening to curb inflationary pressures.

Nigeria’s public debt has, however, risen sharply to over N159 trillion as of December 2025, reflecting increased borrowing for budget support and infrastructure financing.

Uwaleke identified the removal of petrol subsidy and the unification of the foreign exchange market as the administration’s most consequential reforms.

He noted that fuel subsidy payments consumed over N4 trillion in 2022 and encouraged corruption, smuggling and fiscal leakages.

According to him, the elimination of subsidies freed resources for infrastructure, social investment and economic development, though it led to higher transportation and living costs.

The economist also said that unifying the foreign exchange market helped reduce arbitrage and improve transparency after years of multiple exchange rates.

The naira, which depreciated sharply and crossed N1,800 to the dollar during the adjustment period in 2024, has now stabilised around N1,400 at the official market.

Professor Uwaleke stated that measures such as the Nigeria Tax Acts 2025, banking sector recapitalisation and the push for local refining capacity signalled a long-term restructuring agenda.

Like Uwaleke, Dr Justin Amase opined that the administration restored confidence in the economy by clearing a backlog of over $7 billion in foreign exchange owed to investors and businesses.

He said Nigeria’s net external reserves had improved from below $4 billion in 2023 to over $34 billion, while gross reserves climbed close to $50 billion.

Amase pointed to improvements in Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook, increased capital importation and a significant rally in the Nigerian stock market as evidence that the reforms were gradually yielding results.

According to him, market capitalisation on the Nigerian Exchange rose from about N44 trillion at the end of 2023 to nearly N160 trillion recently.

The economist said the administration had succeeded in restoring policy credibility and investor confidence despite the reforms’ social costs.

“The reforms have improved transparency and strengthened fiscal coordination, but the challenge now is translating macroeconomic gains into improved welfare for ordinary Nigerians,” Amase said.

He added that rising debt-servicing obligations, unemployment among youths and weak purchasing power remained major concerns requiring urgent attention.

Both analysts acknowledged that the administration’s reforms brought severe hardship to citizens, particularly during the transition period.

Food inflation, transport costs and electricity tariffs have continued to pressure households despite recent moderation in headline inflation.

Nigeria’s GDP grew by 3.89 per cent in the first quarter of 2026, driven mainly by telecommunications, financial services and construction, while oil production remained below potential at about 1.55 million barrels per day.

Uwaleke also commended the implementation of local government financial autonomy, the student loan scheme and the consumer credit programme, describing them as measures capable of improving inclusion and expanding opportunities.

He, however, warned that the next phase of reforms must focus more on job creation, agricultural productivity, infrastructure delivery and human capital development.

According to him, macroeconomic stability alone would not be sufficient if citizens continued to face poverty, unemployment and declining living standards.

“History may ultimately judge this administration not merely by the boldness of its reforms, but by whether those reforms succeed in building a more prosperous, inclusive and economically resilient Nigeria,” he said.

Other economic analysts acknowledge that reform was unavoidable.

Director and chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, noted that the administration inherited an economy under severe pressure — with foreign reserves critically low, widespread concerns about deficit financing and declining investor confidence.

“The foreign exchange market was facing a liquidity crisis, investor confidence was weak, and concerns over subsidy-related leakages were widespread. There was a clear need for bold reforms to prevent a deeper economic crisis,” Yusuf said.

He acknowledged, however, that the reforms came at a high human cost, including higher inflation, increased business operating expenses and a sharp decline in household purchasing power.

Capital market analyst Sola Oni, CEO of Sofunix Investment and Communications, similarly noted that the reforms boosted activity on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and attracted renewed investor interest, but cautioned that market performance does not tell the full story.

“Inflation, exchange-rate pressures and higher living costs have weakened consumer purchasing power and placed significant pressure on businesses, especially those that depend heavily on imports,” Oni said, adding that the ultimate measure of the reforms’ success would be their ability to generate jobs and improve living standards broadly.

A former acting national president of the Association of Nigerian Licensed Customs Agents, Dr Kayode Farinto, offered a mixed scorecard, rating the administration’s performance at 55 per cent.

“The reforms have been working tremendously, and this is the only administration that has generated more revenue into the Federation Account. The challenge is that ordinary Nigerians are not feeling the impact,” he said, arguing that state and local governments, which now receive significantly higher allocations, have failed to translate those gains into visible improvements for citizens.

LEADERSHIP Weekend recalls that opposition voices have been less charitable.

Former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi repeatedly argued that subsidy removal should have been gradual and tied to investments in healthcare, education and social protection.

He described the condition of Nigerian workers as “deeply painful”.

Also, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar accused the administration of imposing the burden of reform almost entirely on ordinary citizens. At the same time, economist Marcel Okeke publicly questioned the contradictions between official claims of improved fiscal stability and the administration’s continued borrowing.

The immediate effects of the reforms bore out many of those concerns. Petrol prices surged by more than 150 per cent. Transportation costs doubled in many cities. A N70,000 minimum wage increase, negotiated under pressure from organised labour, quickly lost real value as inflation erased its gains. In many markets, a bag of rice sold for more than the new minimum wage.

“Food inflation is the biggest tax on the poor,” World Bank economist Samer Matta noted in 2025.

The manufacturing sector struggled with soaring import costs. Small businesses faced rising electricity tariffs and punishing interest rates after the Central Bank aggressively tightened monetary policy, pushing rates to 27.25 per cent by late 2024. Several companies cut operations, downsized staff or shut down entirely.

Nigeria’s technology ecosystem, once among Africa’s fastest-growing, was not spared, as start-ups earning revenue in naira struggled to service dollar-denominated obligations.

Government cash transfer programmes, which promised monthly payments of N25,000 to vulnerable households, were widely criticised for slow and uneven implementation, with millions of struggling Nigerians never receiving support.

The hardship found expression beyond debate chambers and opinion columns.

In August 2024, the #EndBadGovernance protests erupted across Lagos, Abuja, Kano and other cities, as Nigerians — many of them young graduates without stable employment — took to the streets to demand an end to rising hunger, unemployment and deteriorating living conditions.

For many, the administration’s “Renewed Hope” agenda had become synonymous with renewed hardship.

Three years on, the central question remains unanswered: were the reforms necessary surgery or reckless shock therapy?

The administration maintains that the previous subsidy-driven system was unsustainable and that Nigeria merely postponed painful, but inevitable,  decisions. Supporters point to stabilised foreign exchange markets, improved revenue inflows and returning GDP growth as evidence that the structural foundations are being repaired.

Critics argue that macroeconomic improvements ring hollow when poverty continues to rise, real wages remain depressed, and per capita income remains weak. Even as the economy grows, they argue, millions of Nigerians feel excluded from whatever gains are being recorded.

Both Yusuf and Oni admit that while the reforms have helped lay the groundwork for long-term stability, greater urgency is needed to address the welfare of ordinary Nigerians to ensure that economic progress translates into tangible everyday improvements.

History may ultimately judge Tinubu’s first three years as a period of difficult but necessary transformation. For now, millions of Nigerians are still counting the cost.