2027: ADC Faces Reality Check After 3 Guber Election Losses

Party may name Abia senator Akobundu as Atiku-Amaechi campaign DG

By Ademu Idakwo and James Kwen,  Abuja

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) entered the 2027 race promising to reshape Nigeria’s opposition politics and emerge as a formidable challenger to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC).

However, three governorship elections have now offered the party an early reality check: in Anambra, Ekiti and Osun, it failed to win a single state or finish as runner-up.

The results have exposed a widening gap between the ADC’s growing political visibility and its electoral strength on the ground, forcing the party to confront a difficult question ahead of 2027: can its national opposition profile be translated into the votes, structures and grassroots mobilisation needed to mount a serious challenge for power?

While the APC has seized on the three defeats as evidence of the ADC’s organisational weakness, the opposition party and its supporters dismiss the results as an unreliable measure of its national prospects, arguing that off-cycle governorship elections do not necessarily reflect the dynamics of a presidential election.

With 2027 drawing closer, the ADC must now prove that its growing coalition, prominent political figures and expanding national profile can deliver more than political headlines when Nigerians finally go to the polls.

Three elections, no victory

In Anambra, the ADC candidate, John Chuma-Nwosu, polled 8,208 votes to finish fifth in the November 2025 governorship election.

In Ekiti, its candidate, Oluwadare Bejide, secured 12,872 votes to finish third behind the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) candidate, Wole Oluyede, who scored 40,543 votes, and the victorious APC candidate, Biodun Oyebanji, who polled 319,224 votes.

The party also finished third in Osun, where its candidate, Najeem Salaam, polled 17,180 votes, far behind Accord candidate and Governor Ademola Adeleke, who won with 511,067 votes, and APC candidate Bola Oyebamiji, who scored 444,815 votes.

Across the three elections, the ADC polled 38,260 votes, recording its strongest performance in absolute numbers in Osun.

Obi factor complicates Anambra assessment

The Anambra result, however, requires some qualification when assessing the ADC’s current political strength because Peter Obi was not a member of the party when the election was held.

Obi joined the ADC in December 2025 but announced his departure in May 2026 before moving to the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), adding another layer of competition to the opposition landscape ahead of 2027.

His exit means the ADC can no longer rely on the former Anambra governor’s political profile and support base as one of its major assets as it prepares for the general elections.

Question over ADC’s 2027 prospects

Political analyst and chairman of the National Youth Council, Zamfara State, Nuhu Salisu Maishinkafa, said the ADC’s performance in the three states had raised questions about its ability to make a significant impact in 2027.

He said the party’s results suggested that it was yet to establish itself as a formidable electoral force.

“In Anambra, APGA won. In Ekiti, APC won. And in Osun, it was PDP and Accord. Based on all of this, ADC is either coming third or fourth,” he said.

Maishinkafa said the party’s challenge extended beyond visibility to the loss of key political stakeholders.

“One thing I can say is, looking at the fact that they allowed their key stakeholders or key players to leave the party for another party. Honestly, I don’t see ADC making it for 2027,” he stated.

Aregbesola’s Osun influence put to test

The Osun result has attracted particular attention because of the political profile of Rauf Aregbesola, the former governor of the state, former Minister of Interior and current national secretary of the ADC.

His political history in Osun had fuelled expectations that the party would mount a strong challenge in the state. Instead, the ADC finished a distant third with only 17,180 votes.

For its critics, the result raises a fundamental question: can the political influence of prominent individuals be transferred automatically to a new political platform?

The Kaduna State chapter of the APC has capitalised on the outcome to argue that the ADC lacks the organisation required to challenge the ruling party in 2027.

ADC lacks structures to challenge Tinubu – Kaduna APC

Speaking with LEADERSHIP Sunday, Kaduna APC state publicity secretary, Mohammed Sani Haruna, said the results declared by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) showed that the ADC would remain a distant third in 2027.

Haruna argued that, unlike the APC before the 2015 elections, the ADC had not demonstrated the organisation, seriousness and political groundwork required to take power.

He also questioned whether politicians who had recently joined the ADC could convince Nigerians that they represented a credible alternative, arguing that many of them had previously occupied public offices and would be judged by their records.

He described the Osun result as particularly damaging to the ADC’s claim of possessing strong political structures.

“The most shocking result was the one in Osun State. They have a former governor of Osun State, a former minister in the federal cabinet, and the current secretary of the party, one of the promoters who claims to have the biggest political group in Osun State, yet they came a distant third with a meagre 17,000 votes,” Haruna said.

He added that the ADC’s inability to secure substantial votes in Osun despite Aregbesola’s political history in the state showed the difficulty it would face in making a significant impact nationally in 2027.

ADC dismisses off-cycle elections as yardstick

The ADC, however, has rejected the interpretation of the three governorship elections as a verdict on its national prospects.

The party’s governorship aspirant in Kogi State, Aminu Nda Onuh, argued that off-cycle elections could not accurately measure the party’s chances in the 2027 general elections.

According to him, voters do not attach the same importance to off-cycle governorship elections as they do to national elections, particularly the presidential contest.

Onuh also claimed that the ADC enjoyed significant support among Nigerians affected by economic hardship, which he attributed to years of what he described as APC mismanagement.

Speaking with LEADERSHIP Sunday, he expressed confidence that the ADC would defeat the APC in 2027.

“We don’t have any fear because elections will be based on the performance of political parties. ADC is a new party, and Nigerians already have APC’s report card, which has misruled the country.”

“You can’t use an off-cycle to think we are nowhere. We will beat the APC silly because their performances have campaigned for us,” he said.

Candidates, not parties, may decide 2027, says analyst Lawal

A political analyst in Osun, Comrade Waheed Lawal, also disagreed with the argument that the ADC’s recent results had determined its prospects for 2027.

Speaking with our correspondent in Osogbo, Lawal said nothing prevented the party from making significant inroads into the next general elections if it fielded credible candidates.

He noted that Nigerians were increasingly voting for individuals rather than simply for political parties, citing the emergence of Accord in Osun as an example.

“The Nigerian electorate now votes individually. The ADC can be a political party that has been around for a fairly long time, but up till now, they have not had a single governor. But don’t forget that the Accord Party before now didn’t have a governor, but today they can boast of a governor through Governor Ademola Adeleke of Osun State,” he said.

Lawal said credibility, intellectual capacity and personal records could prove more important than party labels in 2027.

“People now vote for credibility, intellectual capacity and individuals with impeccable pedigrees to lead them. So, because ADC came fifth in Anambra and third in Osun, it shows that the party is on the ground and therefore can make a significant impact in the 2027 elections, but it will depend on how it carries itself,” he said.

He nevertheless acknowledged the structural advantage enjoyed by the APC as the ruling party.

“Whether we like it or not, the candidate of the APC, who is the sitting president, has 31 governors on the ground, and each of them will want to have an impact in their states.

“But that does not mean ADC cannot make an inroad too; it depends on how they conduct themselves,” he said.

.Stronger opposition welcomed, but more work needed

Similarly, the House of Representatives aspirant on the APC platform for Ovia South in Edo State in the 2023 general elections, Honourable Oronsaye Robert Uyi, said the ADC needed to do more to establish itself as a strong opposition force capable of checking the ruling party.

Uyi said the emergence of a stronger opposition was itself an indication of growing dissatisfaction among Nigerians over the state of the country.

“I honestly see a stronger political force against APC, the ruling party, and it’s a sign that Nigerians are fed up with the present state of the country in general,” he said.

.Turnout, vote buying pose additional challenges

Beyond party structures and candidates, concerns over vote buying and inconsistent voter participation could also affect the ADC’s prospects in 2027.

Barrister Agba Vanger, a public affairs analyst based in Sokoto, said voter turnout remained low in some states, citing Anambra as an example.

He said voting decisions in 2027 would largely depend on economic conditions and how Nigerians assessed the performance of the government.

Vanger, however, maintained that the ADC had lost members, continued to lose members and was yet to convince Nigerians that it had the capacity to deliver.

“The judgment is with the people. As a lawyer, I cannot know the minds of the people. People have to judge based on whether the government has performed well in some areas. If they feel many things have been done well, they can elect them,” he said.

.ADC faces crucial test before 2027

The conflicting assessments leave the ADC at a critical juncture.

Its three-state record shows that the party is yet to demonstrate the electoral strength of the APC and other established political platforms. However, its supporters insist that the results must be considered against the peculiarities of off-cycle elections and the fact that the party is still building its structures.

The party’s votes increased from 8,208 in Anambra to 12,872 in Ekiti and 17,180 in Osun, although it failed to win any of the three contests.

The bigger challenge will be whether the ADC can translate its growing political visibility and the prominence of its leaders into a functional grassroots structure capable of mobilising voters across the country.

With Obi now outside the party, it must also demonstrate that its appeal extends beyond individual political personalities.

The period before the 2027 elections will therefore be crucial for building structures at ward and polling-unit levels, strengthening internal organisation and convincing voters that the ADC can provide a credible alternative to the APC.

For its critics, the three governorship elections have exposed weaknesses that could prove costly in 2027. For its supporters, they represent only an early stage in the party’s attempt to establish itself as a national political force.

Akobundu tipped to head Atiku-Amaechi campaign

Meanwhile, the ADC may name Austin Akobundu, the senator representing Abia Central Senatorial District, as director-general of the Atiku-Amaechi presidential campaign.

Authoritative sources within the party said Akobundu, who retired from the army as a colonel before entering politics, was favoured to lead the campaign team.

He was also a former Minister of State for Defence under former President Goodluck Jonathan.

Akobundu entered the Senate after the Court of Appeal, on November 4, 2023, nullified the election of Darlington Nwokocha. He was subsequently sworn in on November 15, 2023.

Initially elected on the PDP platform, Akobundu defected to the ADC in March 2026.

“The name of Senator Akobundu has been settled as the DG of the campaign team. He had actually wanted to be the running mate of our presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar. But now he is going to head the campaign team,” the source said.

Ologbondiyan, Okonkwo listed for media team

Former PDP national publicity secretary, Mr Kola Ologbondiyan, is also listed as the campaign’s lead spokesperson.

The Kogi State-born journalist is reportedly the choice of former President of the Senate, David Mark.

If selected, Ologbondiyan is expected to work with Nigeria’s celebrated actor and lawyer, Kenneth Okonkwo, who was a political ally of Peter Obi and one of his spokespersons during the 2023 presidential election.