Lagos Gov: A Model Succession Blueprint Or Imposition?

Dr Kadri Obafemi Hamzat’s endorsement as the APC’s consensus candidate for the 2027 general election in Lagos State wasn’t a fluke. It has its bearing in insider continuity, resilience, strategic sacrifice and loyalty to the party. Now that smoke has again been seen from the political conclave in Lagos, GEORGE OKOJIE examines the succession pattern and its tacit implications for the governance of the state.

That the All Progressives Congress (APC) has its tap root in Lagos State and is strategically placed to win elections in the state is an understatement.

The reasons being that, since the advent of the current democratic dispensation in the country in 1999, the state has been ruled by the party that metamorphosed from Alliance For Democracy (AD), Action Congress (AC), Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN), before merging with other parties to form APC.

The party has strong political structures in the state, firmly controlled by President Bola Tinubu, who, by virtue of his position, remains the undisputed national leader of the party even before he became the president of the country.

Over time, the party was able to consolidate its firm grip to power in the state by having transformational leaders who served as governors, starting from Asiwaju Bola Tinubu, Mr. Babatunde Fashola, Akinwunmi Ambode, widely adjudged to have governed the state creditably and the current Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, whose footprints in the governance of the state are indelible.

Anyone who has followed the highly intriguing political algebra of Lagos State, where President Bola Tinubu holds sway as the’ strongman of Lagos politics, ’ closely knows that no one emerges from the blues, no matter how talented, influential and popular, who aspires to govern Lagos State and succeed without the approval of Mr President. He prefers insider continuity, ostensibly to foster rapid state development.

Thus, the emergence of Hamzat as the consensus candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) for the 2027 general election has once again underscored the overbearing influence of the President, the party’s undisputed national leader.

The quality of leadership and sagacity that President Bola Tinubu has brought to the nation’s political landscape has since made him a political oracle whose followers listen to to know the anointed candidate to queue behind.

His ability to swing the pendulum in whatever way he prefers, irrespective of who presently sits on the throne as the state’s helmsman, and to fix whoever he feels is the best man for the job, could be traced to his doggedness, determination, experience, and perseverance.

The Tinubu succession agenda, as witnessed in Hamzat’s emergence as the consensus candidate for the APC flagbearer, is not easy to come by in any human endeavour. The truth is that while heavyweight politicians of his calibre in the country were indulging in “Amala and Gbegiri” politics, Tinubu was busy developing human resources.

He has many of his political sons he has mentored in his kitty, and he comes out when it matters most to crown any of them who suits his purpose as the next governor of the state.

Like President Bola Tinubu or hate him, his developmental politics has continued to pay off, and political pundits feel it must be sustained to prevent him from losing the confidence of his political admirers and playing into the hands of his political predators gunning for him as he now leads the country.

For instance, the man who succeeded him as the governor of the state, Mr Babatunde Fashola SAN, groomed him as his Chief of Staff and battled all odds to install him as the governor. Although he was no longer the sitting governor when he finished his tenure, Ashiwaju Bola Tinubu demonstrated his supremacy in Lagos politics and successfully installed Mr Akinwunmi Ambode, a member of his economic think tank, who had served as Permanent Secretary and Accountant General in 2006, as the governor of the state.

Ditto the man who succeeded Ambode as the governor of the state, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, a Banking Executive, had also served as Special Adviser, acting Commissioner for Budget and Economic Planning, 2004 -2005, and substantively Commissioner for Establishment, Training and Pension in 2007.

Although the Lagos governorship contest has always been eclectic considering the fact that the unexpected candidates backed by the power that be in the state determines who governs the state, the polity was already charged as potential aspirants eyeing the seat had started underground politicking and even went as purchasing Governorship and Expression form for a whopping N50 million, while the very discerning amongst them kept their gun powder dry waiting to hear clearly from the political oracle.

There were speculations that those aspiring for the Alausa Round House on the platform of the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, include President Bola Tinubu’s son, Seyi Tinubu; serving Speaker of the Lagos State House of Assembly, Hon Mudashiru Obasa; immediate past Lagos Governor, Akinwunmi Ambode and the serving Minister of Education, Dr Tunji Alausa.

But in all of these, the fact that Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, a Christian succeeded former Governor Ambode made many observers to zero in on the Muslim aspirants amongst them because the factors that determines who emerges the candidates of the ruling party in the state and winner of the poll proper include the choice of President Tinubu, religion, zoning, and support of the Governance Advisory Council, (GAC), the highest decision-making organ of the APC in the state, among others.

Then ultimately, whoever is endorsed by the president automatically emerges as a consensus candidate for the party and a potential winner of the contest.

From the permutations, analysts opined that it may be difficult for another Christian to be considered for the governorship job in the state after two Christians have consistently governed the state for twelve good years.

Interestingly, the man who would eventually fly the party’s flag in the state was discovered by President Tinubu during one of his numerous talent hunts in the United States of America. It has been professed that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu discovered Dr. Kadri Hamzat way back in the United States of America and brought him back to the country as Oando Executive.

His political foundation took root in 2005, when the then-Governor Tinubu appointed him Commissioner for Science and Technology in Lagos State.

That was his first major public office, and it positioned him firmly inside the governance of the state and the Lagos progressive politics, where he continued to showcase his capabilities and competence.

Hamzat retained the position under former Governor Babatunde Fashola, before he was elevated to the more visible portfolio of Commissioner for Works and Infrastructure in 2011, a role that gave him the opportunity to deliver iconic infrastructure such as the Lekki Link Bridge and other well-constructed roads in the state.

Although Hamzat had fully prepared for the job and wanted to succeed Fashola in 2014, the will of the Lagos power establishment prevailed against him at the December 2014 APC governorship primary, where he ran and lost to Akinwunmi Ambode.

Ambode, who happened to be the Lagos GAC’s preferred candidate, won convincingly with 3,735 votes, while Hamzat, in his own political strength, finished second with 1,201 votes during the primary. Senator Ganiyu Solomon placed third with 272 votes, and Adeyemi Ikuforiji finished fourth with 182 votes.

In the new rapprochement ahead of the 2027 general election, the theory of insider continuity has been adopted with Lagos State Governor, Babajide Sanwo-Olu, declaring that his deputy “is worth a governor from day one.”

Recall that on 29 September 2018, a day before the APC primary, Hamzat stepped down to support the current governor of the state.

As someone who understands Lagos politics, he did say then, “After due consultations with my numerous supporters and in deference to the wise counsel of those I consider my political mentors, I have resolved to step down from the governorship race in Lagos and instead pool resources together with my brother and friend, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu.”

A member of the Governance Advisory Council, Chief Olumuyiwa Sosanya, buttressed this fact in his Kosofe residence when he said that President Tinubu and Senator Anthony Adefuye asked Hamzat to step down for Governor Babajide Sanwoolu, and he agreed, concluding that it was Hamzat’s turn.

Thereafter, he accepted the deputy governorship slot on Sanwo-Olu’s ticket, and they won.  He is a two-term deputy governor. Thus, he has become the first deputy governor in Lagos since the return of democracy in 1999 to serve eight consecutive years, dwarfing the records of any of his predecessors, including Kofoworola Bucknor-Akerele, Olufemi Pedro, Mrs Sarah Sosan and Idiat Adebule.

The political process in Lagos State has been devoid of rancour, as Ambode, who had surreptitiously shown interest in returning to office, has congratulated Hamzat on his emergence as the APC’s consensus governorship candidate.

Ambode described Hamzat’s emergence as a reflection of his loyalty, dedication and longstanding commitment to the ideals of the ruling party.

He noted that the candidate’s consultations with party leaders and members underscored his reputation as a “true party man” devoted to unity and progress.

According to the former governor, Hamzat’s over two decades of service within the APC have earned him the trust and confidence of party stakeholders, and he expressed optimism that Lagos State would benefit from his experience and governance capacity.

In the same vein, Dr Abdul Lazeez Olajide Adediran (JANDOR) has since withdrawn from the race, barely 24 hours after obtaining the nomination form and expression of interest form for the Lagos State governorship race on the APC.

Adediran said the decision to withdraw from the race is informed by his respect for the party’s leadership’s collective decision to present Hamzat as the party’s consensus candidate.

“However, leadership also demands the capacity to make difficult but necessary decisions that prioritise collective interest above personal ambition.

“In line with this, I hereby fully align myself with the position and direction of Mr. President regarding the Lagos State gubernatorial process. Party supremacy and strategic alignment are critical to sustaining the gains we have collectively built over the years,” he said while endorsing the APC consensus candidate.

Continuity-wise, Hamzat has promised to improve the state’s development trajectory if elected in the forthcoming election.

Hamzat, whose governorship ambition has continued to receive a significant boost from different organisations, urged the prominent Lagosians, various groups and workers to retain that trust in them that he will not let them down.

Describing his governorship ambition as “audacious”, Hamzat expressed confidence that his experience as Deputy Governor has prepared him for the task ahead.

He said, “Nobody is ready because the assignment is audacious. But what you have is experience. Having served as Deputy Governor of Lagos under Governor Sanwo-Olu, I have learned a lot. I know the room. I know where the kitchen is.

“You know, if you want to cook for people and you don’t know the kitchen, it doesn’t matter how good a chef you are; you must know the kitchen. So, with God’s blessings and the support of all my fathers here, I really don’t have any fear,” he added.

In his reaction to the governorship succession pattern in Lagos State, the Chairman of the Centre for Anti-Corruption and Open Leadership (CACOL), Debo Adeniran, said the development was in line with the provisions of the Electoral Act, which allows political parties to choose their candidates either by consensus or through party primaries.

Adeniran noted that there was nothing unusual in the process, recalling that similar choices made in the past by former Lagos State governor, now President Bola Tinubu, had produced some of the state’s best-performing leaders.

He explained that if the performance of Tinubu’s successors, including Fashola, Ambode, and Sanwo-Olu, had been satisfactory to Lagosians, there was little reason to fear that the current choice would be different.

”Also, none of Tinubu’s former cabinet members had been accused of malfeasance. From Fashola to Ambode and Sanwo-Olu, Ambode is even being touted as one of the best in terms of infrastructural development in Lagos State, and Sanwo-Olu has also introduced innovations to Lagos State. If that has been the historical situation, then it is not something we should fret about,” Adeniran added.

On the role of other parties, Adeniran remarked, “That APC has decided to go this way doesn’t stop other political parties from choosing other candidates, through party primaries or through their own consensus. It is the antecedents of the candidates, or maybe aspirants, that will be examined by Lagosians for them to make up their mind about who they would ultimately choose as their governor.”

Focusing on Hamzat’s personality, he said, “Obafemi Hamzat, as far as I am concerned, as far as what I read about him, I think he’s a very humble person. He’s somebody who has been patient, who didn’t give his principal, the governor, any stress during the eight years that they’ve been together. He has not been reported to have been found wanting in the performance of his duties and has not involved himself in any act that could be detrimental to the progress of the state.”

He said, “We were told that it’s been a long time since he had been seen to be qualified to be governor, even before Sanwo-Olu. But he pandered to the opinions of his superior party members.

”So, if somebody listens to his party members, it means that he’s most likely to listen to the citizenry when he eventually becomes the chief executive in the state. I think I’m comfortable with his choice.”

He concluded: “I don’t see him lowering the standard at his own level. I think he wants us to keep memories of his progenitors in Lagos politics in glowing colours. Notwithstanding, if better choices emerge, we can always change our minds as we conduct the historical analysis of each candidate. We’ll be able to make the best choice.”

For Dr Adetokunbo Pearse, a Peoples Democratic Party  Chieftain, the succession pattern is not the best for the state, saying’’ President Tinubu has always chosen people he knows he can control, especially regarding the budget of the state. As it is now, we all know that any governor who does not contribute significantly to his war-chest will get rid of him; he will criticise him; he will be gone. He likes such a person; that is why he wants another one in the person of Obafemi Hamzat.

‘’Of course, it is not good for the state, because the money of the state has not been spent on the state, the money of the state has been going to fund other things and that will continue under Hamzat. That is the situation we are in now, by the grace of God. PDP would produce a candidate as strong as late Engineer Funso Williams or Jimi Agbaje in 2015, and we will defeat whoever he brings out.

‘’We will not allow this atrocity to continue in Lagos State. On the merit of choosing his former aides as candidates, it depends on what they did while with him; all they did was follow his instructions to undermine the state’s development. When Fashola was governor, and he was beginning to clean up everywhere, including controlling traffic and building roads, he told him to stop.

”He was made to realise he was not elected to do all that work, and that he was doing too much; he stopped him only three years. Fashola did what he did; he attained his great achievement in just three years. ‘’

Comrade Mark Adebayo, spokesperson of Coalition of United Political Parties (CUPP), in his appraisal of the governorship succession blueprint in the state, said, ‘’ When the opposition is asleep, you don’t expect the party in power to also go down.

‘’The party in power will take advantage of the opposition’s impotence and seamlessness to run the show. What obtains in Lagos is what is happening at the national level, where the opposition is in disarray, asleep. ‘’Where the opposition is being destroyed from within by the selfish ambition of individuals, when the opposition has refused to queue behind one popular candidate. We have 22 registered political parties. Why can’t ten or 15 of those come together to support one candidate?

‘’For Lagos State, for as one the opposition did not get its acts together, Tinubu will continue to run Lagos and he will choose whoever he wants to choose, that has been the show since 2007, what has the opposition been able to do since then, Tinubu only became president in 2023, so nobody should come around and tell us that it is because he is the president, Lagos State has been like that, what has the opposition been able to do.

‘’The opposition lacks the capacity, the intelligence, and the political coherence to be able to override what the APC has done. Even at the national level, they will tell you Tinubu is the one scattering the opposition, but in what way?

One merit of choosing his former aides is that he knows them; they have worked with him, and he believes they are the best to carry on his legacy. On the merits and demerits, it is an individual choice; he has his own decision, and he will continue to make that decision, make his own choices, for as long as he remains unchallenged by an incompetent opposition.

‘’Until the opposition gets its act right.  When dealing with Tinubu, who is a game-changer in politics and elections, you need to be at the top of your game.

An APC chieftain, Senator Ayo Arise, said, ‘’Lagos State is a peculiar state; the state has a leader, who is today the president of our country and the leader of the party. The state is noted for continuity in governance, and our president has laid that foundation in Lagos State, so I cannot see any significant disadvantage in that continuity plan.

”In fact, Lagos has imbibed the culture of queuing up, until the turn of the person that is anointed, he would also be queuing. I believe Hamzat has paid his dues over the years, and he has been the governor-in-waiting; I don’t see any surprise in his emergence.”

Arise’s position was also corroborated by a Civil society advocate, Comrade Nelson Ekujimi, who noted that the emergence of Dr Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat as the APC’s consensus candidate for the 2027 gubernatorial election in Lagos State has not come as a surprise to many Lagosians.

“In view of his pedigree, he has become the Deputy Governor. If you recall, he worked under then-Governor Bola Tinubu, now President Bola Ahmed Tinubu.  And he was also a Commissioner for Science and Technology under Governor Babatunde Fashola. This is a man who was adopted from the private sector, where he distinguished himself.  And since he came into the executive office, he has held up the banner,” he said.

Ekujimi added that, ‘’And if the party faithful think through in their wisdom, and decide that they don’t want to be acrimonious, the emergence of a candidate after a direct primary, or an indirect primary, as there’s a consensus, I think, is also in tandem with the state of democracy. That we want.

”If the party has decided that, if there is no consensus candidate, it will not field a candidate who upholds the tenets of democracy, why not close the window to anyone who wants to aspire?

‘’In that way, the choice of Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat would be an eye-opener to any other candidate. And you don’t need to go to any party or person seeking their nomination or support, because they are already in the public eye. As it will reduce the need to deal with this type of financial warchest, you need to deploy to contest it. That’s the thing, you know that you have to run against it based on your own merits, not based on financial inducements.

‘’And not that they may want to extort you. So, for me, the choice of Kadiri Obafemi Hamzat, even as a Civil society leader and a good governance advocate, is a good arrangement. And that is why we commend the party leaders and also commend the party members for this wise decision, as far as we are concerned.

Public Affairs Analyst Ayodeji Ake remarked that the issue at hand is not necessarily about opposition to Hamzat as a candidate, but rather a growing concern about democratic principles, particularly the right of party members and citizens to freely choose their representatives.

‘’Many people did not expect a consensus arrangement, not because they reject Hamzat personally, but because such a process raises questions about internal democracy.

While consensus candidacy is recognised within party frameworks and even supported by electoral guidelines, its application often blurs the line between agreement and imposition. In a true democratic setting, membership in a political party should guarantee the right to participate in candidate selection, not merely endorse pre-determined choices.

He said, “In the context of Lagos politics, the influence of the president remains significant as the president’s political legacy and structures in Lagos are undeniable. However, this continued influence also fuels the perception that leadership choices in the state are being centrally determined by a close circle of allies rather than through open competition.”

According to him, “Lagos has long been seen as a political template, and decisions made there often set precedents for broader national politics. This makes the issue even more critical. If consensus becomes the norm without genuine consultation, it risks undermining democratic participation and fostering political disengagement.”