Osun Decides: All You Need To Know About Tomorrow’s Poll…

by JOSHUA DADA, Osogbo, and DAMILOLA ORIGBEMISUYI, Akure

Osun State goes to the polls tomorrow, Saturday in a keenly watched governorship election that has assumed significance far beyond the borders of the South-West state.

Fifteen political parties are in the race, but the contest is expected to be dominated by the major political forces seeking control of the state. The election comes after weeks of tension-soaked campaigns, allegations of political violence, clashes, attacks and arrests, raising concerns about the ability of the state to deliver a peaceful and credible poll.

The election is also the second governorship poll to be conducted by the Independent National Electoral Commission under its current chairman, Prof. Joash Amupitan (SAN), since his assumption of office. His first governorship test was the June 20 Ekiti State election, which was generally adjudged peaceful. The Osun poll therefore offers another opportunity for Amupitan-led INEC to demonstrate its preparedness and strengthen public confidence in the electoral process ahead of the 2027 general elections.

But unlike Ekiti, the road to the Osun election has been marked by a disturbing pattern of political tension and violence. Security agencies have reported arrests of suspects linked to breaches of public peace, while political actors have traded accusations over attacks, intimidation and the alleged use of thugs. The police have said some suspects arrested in connection with the violence confessed to plans to procure arms and ammunition for further attacks.

Why Is the Osun Poll Important?

For a state where the governorship election is too close to call, Saturday’s poll is crucial for several reasons.

Bellwether For 2027

The election could provide an early indication of voter sentiment ahead of next year’s general election.

Given Osun’s unpredictable voting pattern, the poll will serve as a test of voter preferences and political strategies for Accord, which controls the state, the opposition parties and the APC, the ruling party at the centre.

Grudge Match

Although the contest is largely a three-horse race involving Accord’s Governor Ademola Adeleke, the APC’s Bola Oyebamiji and the ADC’s Najeem Salaam, it is also a battle involving political “godfathers” who have worked together and against one another in different election cycles.

The APC candidate is backed by the immediate past governor of the state and current Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Adegboyega Isiaka Oyetola. As the party’s leader in the state, Oyetola hopes to reclaim control of Osun, which he lost to Adeleke in the 2022 governorship election.

The ADC candidate is also backed by a former governor, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who now serves as the ADC National Secretary. His alliance with Adeleke in 2022 helped defeat Oyetola and the APC.

However, in Saturday’s election, Aregbesola hopes to prove his political strength not only in Osun but also to give the ADC an inroad into the South-West and provide the party with a morale boost ahead of 2027.

The incumbent, Adeleke, is no stranger to the backers of his two key opponents, having battled them at different times in previous elections. He will be seeking to retain control of the state in a contest that has brought his former ally, Aregbesola, into the opposition camp.

Major Test For INEC

The election is also a major test for the Prof Joash Amupitan-led Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and its preparedness for the 2027 general election.

Having presided over one major off-cycle election since assuming office as INEC chairman, the Osun poll will provide a clearer picture of the commission’s readiness to tackle perennial logistical challenges and the menace of vote-trading.

It will also test the commission’s ability to manage the highly charged political environment expected ahead of 2027, particularly against the backdrop of the tensions witnessed in Osun in the run-up to Saturday’s election.

Security And Concerns Over Apathy

The election has been preceded by politically motivated killings and violent rhetoric, raising concerns about voter apathy and its possible impact on the outcome.

The poll will therefore further intensify the debate over the effectiveness of security arrangements and their implications for voter confidence ahead of the 2027 elections.

Seven Things That May Decide The Vote

1. Security

The killings and violent rhetoric that have preceded the election have raised concerns about voter apathy, which could affect the outcome.

The ability of security agencies to guarantee the safety of voters, electoral officials and materials at polling units will therefore be crucial

2. INEC Preparedness

The electoral commission’s ability to ensure the timely delivery of electoral materials, the effective functioning of the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the competence of its personnel will be critical to the success of the election.

3. Ground Game And Polling Agents

The ability of parties and candidates to deploy competent agents to polling units and monitor the voting and collation processes will be crucial to protecting their votes.

4. Money

While a large war chest does not necessarily guarantee electoral victory, access to funds can give parties and candidates an advantage in a tightly contested election such as Osun.

5. Last-Minute Push

The ability of parties and candidates to strike last-minute political deals and win over former opponents could shape the outcome of an election that remains too close to call.

6. Voter Turnout

Voter turnout will be a major determinant of the outcome, with candidates expected to rely heavily on turnout in their traditional strongholds.

7. Vigilance

The vigilance of parties and candidates in monitoring the result collation process will also be critical, from the polling unit through the ward and local government levels to the state collation centre.

Allegations of alterations to election figures at various stages of the collation process have featured in previous elections, making close monitoring particularly important.