The Financial Markets Dealers Association (FMDA) has projected total liquidity inflows into Nigeria’s financial system at N13.250 trillion in October 2026, representing a 14.82% decline from the N15.556 trillion estimated for September.
The projection, contained in FMDA’s September monthly research report, shows that the decline is driven mainly by lower Open Market Operations (OMO) maturities, which are expected to fall 21.97% to N9.051 trillion from N11.600 trillion in September.
Despite the decline, OMO maturities remain the largest source of projected liquidity, accounting for about 68.3% of October inflows.
OMO maturities, Treasury bill maturities and estimated Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) distributions are projected to contribute approximately N12.774 trillion, equivalent to 96.4% of total October liquidity inflows.
The projected N2.306 trillion reduction in overall inflows therefore largely reflects the smaller volume of OMO securities scheduled to mature during October.
The October projection follows a September characterised by heavy CBN liquidity management and increased fixed-income issuance. OMO issuance surged 45.61% to N17.510 trillion from N12.025 trillion in August, making it the largest component of new issuance during the month.
Average yields declined across all three segments, with NTB yields falling 147 basis points to 17.74%, OMO yields dropping 132 basis points to 18.49% and FGN bond yields declining 110 basis points to 15.90%.
System liquidity increased 1.14% to N4.703 trillion in September from N4.65 trillion in August, according to the FMDA report. Liquidity peaked at about N8.84 trillion following FAAC inflows before moderating as CRR debits, OMO sterilisation and primary-market issuances removed cash from the system.
The association cautioned that CRR debits, aggressive OMO sterilisation and lower projected October inflows could keep system liquidity volatile.
With N9.051 trillion in OMO maturities accounting for more than two-thirds of expected October inflows, liquidity conditions will remain sensitive to the scale of fresh OMO sales and other sterilisation measures deployed by the CBN during the month.
