2027: Opposition Dims Its Chances

Today is the last day for all political parties to complete primaries and resolve disputes arising from the nomination process. By the time I wrote this piece yesterday, five parties had held their primaries and announced their presidential candidates. Leading the pack to oust President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 is the African Democratic Congress (ADC), where former vice president Atiku Abubakar emerged as the standard-bearer amid protests from former Governor Rotimi Amaechi and economist Mohammed Hayatu-Deen.

Even before the verdict in the presidential primary was announced, both Amaechi and Hayatu-Deen had accused the ADC of rigging the process in favour of the former vice president. Amaechi described the results of the primaries as “concocted” and alleged that nearly 80 per cent of party members were prevented from voting. In the words of the former presidential aspirant: “A party that criticises the APC and INEC for rigging and writing results cannot engage in the same conduct”.

Former Cross River governor, Donald Duke, won the presidential ticket of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) a few days after joining the party. He polled 6,499 votes to defeat Kingsley Yakubu, who polled 2,699 votes, while academic and policy expert Nnaoke Ufere got 784 votes. Human rights activist Omoyele Sowore remains unchallenged, having emerged as the African Action Congress (AAC) presidential candidate.  Lawyer and businessman Adewole Adebayo emerged as the Social Democratic Party (SDP) presidential candidate. Peter Obi of the National Democratic Coalition (NDC), Oyo State Governor Seyi Makinde, who recently declared interest in the presidency under the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), and former presidential candidate Gbenga Olawepo-Hashim are expected to be formally affirmed by their respective platforms before the INEC deadline.

Grim Expectations

With no fewer than six opposition parties set to participate in next year’s general elections, the chances of defeating the current administration are diminished. Unlike what was witnessed during the 2015 polls, which revealed that the opposition was united into a formidable platform, the current attempts by the opposition to recreate the 2015 scenario have become impracticable because political actors’ interests have superseded the desire for unity against the incumbent.

Unlike in 2014, the various challenges ripping across the country provide reasons for Nigerians across divides to rally against President Tinubu’s comeback bid. Amid the clamour to stick to the zoning formula, not a few still insist that the presidency should be allowed to run its full course till 2031. However, others insist that the presidency should not be subject to zoning, so that both the North and the South are allowed to contest Nigeria’s leadership. Amid the opposition’s disunity, the grim expectation of an eventual victory for anti-Tinubu forces has taken root.

Recurring Atiku

No one can doubt the relevance of Atiku in Nigeria’s politics. He remains an ‘abiku’ in the quest to become president after he served as deputy to former President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007.  His presidential aspiration dates back to 1992, when he participated in the SDP presidential primary at the Jos convention. Since then, the former Customs Officer has remained relentlessly committed to realising his presidential dream. His refusal to back out of the 2027 contest is hinged on his age, and, given that Atiku is turning 80 this year, the opportunity to contest next year is seen as a final option.

However, given the pendulum of national discourse on Atiku’s chances in 2027, several factors create apprehension for the former vice president. Apart from confronting the behemoth club of no fewer than 30 governors who have declared allegiance to Tinubu, singing at every opportunity, ‘On your mandate we shall stand, Bola,’ the prospects of Atiku of breasting the presidential contest tape are gradually becoming dim. A source informed me this week that the choice of Atiku as the only Northern presidential candidate is itself a strategy, as the regional and religious battle cry may upend Tinubu’s chances.

The resort to regional and religious sentiments seems too simplistic and does not align with realities. With almost all the governors declaring allegiance to Tinubu and committed to his re-election, what other forces outside this club of governors can dare challenge these chief executives of the 19 states?  Democracy as practised in this clime is devoid of voters who have willingly outsourced the ballot government to the ruling elite. Are those who control the levers of power willing to look the other way to allow for the defeat of Tinubu?

An Uncertain Sound

Some Nigerians, including yours sincerely, are convinced that the opposition’s refusal to unite against the incumbent is a staircase to Tinubu’s victory. It seems too clear that Atiku and Obi are divided as the North is from the South. They can never meet. Those who predict that the preponderance of southern candidates against a single northern presidential candidate gives Atiku an edge are just engaged in daydreaming. In Nigeria’s democracy, the man in the corridors of power exerts so much influence to ruin ethnic and religious bandwagons.

The opposition’s disunity has demonstrated the first step toward Tinubu’s victory. When power is driven by selfish interests and power-mongers’ determination to realise their ambitions, the attempt to recreate the 2015 scenario becomes an impossible feat. The pain caused by the Tinubu-led reforms is not enough to defeat the incumbent; what is enough is for the opposition to unite and tell Nigerians what alternative options it has for the country. For now, the opposition remains rudderless and incapable of igniting a national outrage against what citizens consider the failures of the present administration. Those who unite for a common purpose are more prone to emerge victorious than those who hope to win while singing the song of discord.  Between now and January 2027, certain dynamics may unfold to turn the tables. However, for now, the opposition can only hope against hope of ousting Tinubu.