Zoning May Work Against Atiku In 2027 – ACF Ex-Sec General, Sani

Anthony Sani, former Secretary General of the apex northern socio-cultural organisation, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), speaks with AZA MSUE on a wide range of national issues. Excerpts:

What is your take on the 2027 general elections vis-à-vis the preparations, opposition’s coming together and so forth?

I believe the 2027 elections will come and go. This is because voters are more enlightened, while INEC is expected to be more experienced. What worries many Nigerians is that opposition parties do not bring issues to light, preventing voters from making an informed judgment at the polls. The opposition is unduly preoccupied with lamenting hardships brought about by the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira, and they do so without proffering alternative courses of action.

You will recall that all three candidates promised to remove the fuel subsidy, and each received votes. Bola Tinubu received about 8m votes, former VP Atiku Abubakar about 7m, and Peter Obi about 6m. The implication was that in 2023, all candidates and voters had no alternative but to support the removal of the fuel subsidy.

One would have expected the opposition parties to have a clearer alternative course of action by now, their winning game plans. Unfortunately, what one hears are lamentations, as if positive changes in the polity could be achieved through reforms without the initial pain. Even though greater voter enlightenment and more experience on the part of INEC may lead to better elections, they would be without real issues, real concerns, and real voters. Part of the problem is that the opposition candidates are still the old guard. Old wine in a new bottle, one might say.

How can you compare the elections held after the 2015 elections, which were adjudged free and fair?

The 2023 elections were relatively credible, free and fair. That may explain why APC lost Lagos and Katsina states. APC got almost zero in the South East states. Bola Tinubu defeated former VP Atiku in the North. Only credible, free and fair elections could bring about such results in 2023.

The 2027 presidential election has three strong candidates. Is there any possibility of a run-off after the first ballot?

I do not see any possibility of a run-off. This is precisely because what happened in 2023, when Bola Tinubu rose from the ashes of the opposition split, is repeating itself. In 2023, the opposition split into PDP, Labour Party, NNPP and Nyesom Wike’s G5. Currently, the opposition has split into factions of PDP, ADC, NDC, etc. And nobody knows whether Wike is with the APC or the PDP.

What is more, the opposition has only a few governors compared with the APC, which boasts over 30 governors. And when you consider how power changes ideals, alters those upon whom it is exercised, and reshapes those who exercise power, it is hard to avoid the conclusion that the influence of the current incumbency could be overwhelming for the opposition. Hence, the hue and cry that Nigeria is tilting towards one party.

Who, then, do you think has a better chance of winning the presidential election in 2027?

President Bola Tinubu will most likely prevail for several reasons.

Why did you say that?

The main one is the politics of identity, commonly known as zoning. Presently, the South hankers for completion of 8 years after 8 years of President Muhammadu Buhari from the North. Consequently, the South would not vote for any northerner in 2027. You would recall that in 2023, Tinubu defeated Atiku in the North because of zoning. The North wanted the presidency to leave the North after 8 years, going to the South.

Because the North expects to produce the president in 2031, its best bet is to vote for President Bola Tinubu, who cannot govern beyond 2031. The North cannot vote for Peter Obi because it is almost impossible for him to deliver on his promise to serve only one tenure. This is because politics is a collective mission, not an individual enterprise. Furthermore, because Peter Obi has not condemned IPOB and Kanu, the North and, indeed, the nation cannot risk the presidency in his hands. As for former VP Atiku, zoning politics would prevent him from prevailing.

What is your reaction to the Muslim-Muslim presidential ticket again for 2027?

I see the Muslim-Muslim ticket as APC/Bola Tinubu’s winning game plan, and nothing more. Because of improved awareness among Nigerians, it would not take long for Nigerians to outgrow religious politics in favour of real issues that genuinely concern real people. Nigerians should therefore dismiss what the Sheikh has said as nothing more than vociferous bunkum. In any case, it is totally unthinking to imagine religious politics under the watch of President Bola Tinubu, whose wife is a Christian and a pastor.

What is your take on the security situation across the country and the US military assistance?

The security situation in the country has not improved substantially to the level most Nigerians expected, especially after America became involved. This is not to suggest a lack of effort, but rather to acknowledge overwhelming predisposing factors such as poverty, ignorance and unemployment, which are prevalent in the country. Any efforts to achieve the desired results must include both punitive and preventive measures.

The APC administration has just tried to increase the number of trained and equipped security personnel, who are now well motivated to secure the nation. The number, training, equipping, and motivation through salary have all increased. The government’s economic reforms could be said to target the preventive aspects of the fight against insecurity. Whether such efforts are sufficient to achieve the desired results remains to be seen.

The government has introduced economic reforms, including subsidy removal and tax measures aimed at shifting the economy from consumption to productivity. Such reforms are never painless. For President Bola Tinubu to shift from opposing the removal of subsidies to supporting it, despite knowing the implications for his electoral fortunes, underscores the seriousness of the challenges and suggests patriotic courage in facing reality. Nigerians are expected to salute his sense of patriotism and courage and support him, especially as the economy is stabilising and looking up. Whatever hardship Nigerians are passing through is no more than payment for past consumption of oil wealth, which is not the result of hard work.

What advice do you have for President Tinubu on security?

President Bola Tinubu should not look back once his hands are on the plough. If he throws stones at every dog that barks, he will not be able to reach the destination, which is now in sight. He should continue to improve both the kinetic and non-kinetic aspects of the fight against insecurity. He should be steadfast in his efforts to address the underlying causes of insecurity, such as poverty, ignorance and unemployment. The president should not ignore the fight against corruption, which steals our collective empowerment, our opportunity and our future.

These are not issues that can be addressed by switching ON and OFF like a TV, but through consciously directed efforts to make desires possible and then actual.

Some Nigerians are calling for a South East presidency in 2027 to ensure fairness and justice. What is your take on that?

I am not a fan of the politics of identity known as zoning. This is because zoning is a tacit admission of leadership’s failure to deliver on the promise of democracy by ensuring a fair and just distribution of access to national resources through employment, appointments, projects, and contracts. As a result, people are being asked to accept the imperfections inherent in a system where access to state resources must be distributed turn by turn. But since most Nigerians seem to accept such imperfections in politics, I have no choice but to pander.

Currently, the presidency is rotated between the North and the South. It is not between ethnic groups or between religions. When it is the South’s turn, it is left to the power blocs in the South to design their winning game plans. This game is expected to be fair and just. This is because democracy is a contest of ideas and reason. It is neither affirmative action nor a bullfight. So let the South East design their winning game plan instead of playing victim or making threats all the time.