The Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC) has been projected to win 10 states in the 2027 presidential election, while the All Progressives Congress (APC) is projected to win 19 states and lose Rivers State, according to the October electoral map released by the Political Intelligence Group (PIG).
The latest projection was presented to journalists on Friday by PIG leader Lai Omotola, who stressed that the monthly electoral map should not be interpreted as a prediction of the final outcome of the 2027 election.
According to the assessment, the APC remains the party with the highest number of projected states, although its October figure dropped from 20 states in the September map to 19.
The NDC, meanwhile, increased its projected total from eight states in September to 10 states in October, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC) dropped from nine to eight states.
Omotola explained that the electoral map was designed to show how political parties were gaining or losing ground based on developments recorded during the month under review.
He said the map was intended to provide a picture of what the election could look like if it were held in the month of the assessment, rather than serve as a forecast of the eventual result.
“Our monthly electoral map is for parties to see where they are weak and strong and this does not suggest the final result but rather if elections were to be held this month this projection is likely to be the outcome,” Omotola said.
The APC’s movement from 20 projected states in September to 19 in October was attributed to the loss of Rivers State and the gain of Adamawa State.
The ADC also lost one state in the latest assessment after Adamawa, previously included among its projected states, moved into the APC column.
Omotola said, “The ADC, which was projected to control nine states in September, also lost Adamawa to the APC, reducing its October projection to eight states.”
The NDC recorded the biggest increase among the three major political blocs covered by the assessment, moving from eight projected states in September to 10 in October.
“In October, NDC have increased the number of states from 8 in September to 10 states in October,” Omotola said.
The group said several political developments recorded during September were considered in arriving at the October assessment.
Among them was the reported denial of access to Benue State involving NDC presidential candidate Peter Obi. The incident generated political reactions and became part of the wider debate over campaign activities by opposition parties ahead of the 2027 election.
The group also considered developments surrounding President Bola Tinubu’s working vacation and the political debate over his absence from the country during the period.
Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s continued criticism of the Federal Government’s economic policies, including his position on fuel subsidy, was also identified as one of the developments monitored by the group.
On party mobilisation, Omotola said the APC appeared to have recorded the highest level of mobilisation nationwide, followed by the NDC.
He, however, noted that the NDC was yet to constitute a presidential campaign council, while the ADC had constituted its presidential campaign council but had yet to begin what the group described as major nationwide campaign activities.
The political activities of Minister of the Federal Capital Territory, Nyesom Wike, and disagreements involving him and some APC governors were also cited among developments that could influence the evolving political landscape.
Wike has publicly backed President Tinubu’s re-election bid despite not being a member of the APC. He has also repeatedly said his political focus for the 2027 election is to deliver the FCT and Rivers State for the President.
In one of his recent political engagements, Wike said he would resign as FCT Minister if Tinubu failed to win Rivers State and the FCT.
“If I cannot deliver where I work, then I’m not worthy to be here,” Wike said.
He further stated, “By January 17, 2027, I will announce my resignation as FCT Minister should the President lose in Rivers State and the FCT.”
The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has scheduled the presidential and National Assembly elections for February 20, 2027.