The Economist Project: Nigerians’ Daily Experience, Not Pollsters, Others Will Decide 2027 Polls – ADC

The African Democratic Congress (ADC) Presidential Campaign Council has rejected suggestions that President Bola Tinubu’s incumbency, political machinery, low voter turnout and other factors could determine the outcome of the 2027 presidential election, arguing that Nigerians’ lived experiences will ultimately shape their choices at the ballot box.

The Director of Strategic Communication for the council , Phrank Shaibu, said projections about the election should not be mistaken for the verdict of Nigerian voters.

He spoke in response to an article by The Economist that examined the prospects of President Tinubu seeking another term amid widespread economic hardship and insecurity.

“The argument that Nigerians may return President Bola Tinubu to office despite widespread hardship is more than a prediction about one election. It rests on a troubling assumption: that voters have become so accustomed to insecurity, economic pain and political disappointment that they will accept them as permanent,” Shaibu said.

He argued that while factors such as incumbency, political organisation, turnout and religion could influence the election, they could not substitute for voters’ decisions.

“These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict,” he said.

On the situation in Borno State, the ADC campaign council said the hardship experienced by residents should not be interpreted as political passivity.

The statement acknowledged The Economist’s description of the devastation caused by insecurity in the state but said the experiences of farmers, traders, mothers and displaced families demonstrated resilience rather than surrender.

“Behind every statistic are farmers who cannot safely reach their fields, traders forced to seek customers across the border because people at home can no longer afford their goods, and mothers fighting to keep their children alive despite hunger and displacement,” Shaibu said.

He added that gratitude for government assistance should not automatically be interpreted as approval of the administration’s overall record.

“A mother’s gratitude for medicine is gratitude for medicine—not blanket approval of the government’s record,” he said.

The campaign council also argued that the cost-of-living crisis would be an important issue for voters across regional and religious lines.

According to the statement, families are experiencing the economic crisis through higher food prices, transportation costs, school expenses, electricity bills and the rising cost of operating businesses.

“When a family has to choose between buying food, paying for medicine or keeping a child in school, this is a crisis in people’s homes,” Shaibu said.

The statement cited inflation of 15.39 per cent in August and food inflation of 19.57 per cent year-on-year, arguing that slower inflation does not mean that prices have fallen.

“Nigerians measure the economy by what their income can buy, what they must go without and whether they can provide a decent life for their families,” he said.

The ADC campaign council said former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar had consequently placed affordability and the cost of living at the centre of his campaign.

It quoted Atiku as saying: “Tinubu made life expensive. I will make life affordable again.”

According to the statement, Atiku has also apologised to Nigerians over the hardship experienced under the current administration, while proposing policy changes aimed at reducing the cost of daily living.

The council highlighted Atiku’s proposed production-subsidy policy, under which support would apply only to fuel refined in Nigeria, including fuel produced by modular refineries.

The statement said the proposed subsidy would be capped, budgeted and independently monitored, with the objective of lowering pump prices and reducing pressure on transportation and business costs.

The campaign council said the policy would be financed by reducing government waste rather than introducing new taxes or removing support from minimum-wage earners and students.

On voter turnout, Shaibu said the 2023 presidential election demonstrated that the number of registered voters should not be confused with the number of people who actually voted.

He noted that only about 27 per cent of registered voters cast a valid presidential vote in 2023, arguing that low participation could be associated with apathy, insecurity, distrust, logistical difficulties or perceptions that voting would not change the outcome.

“But it is not proof that most Nigerians support the winner. Tinubu won the election; he did not receive the votes of most registered voters,” he said.

The ADC campaign council maintained that Nigerians seeking changes in their economic circumstances would have an opportunity to express their preferences through the ballot box.

It said the coming election would be determined by Nigerian voters and the issues affecting their daily lives, including the cost of living, security and economic opportunity.

“No newspaper, pollster, consultant or political party can decide this election in advance,” Shaibu said.

“Nigerians will judge this administration by what they experience every day, and they will judge Atiku by the credibility of his plan to bring down the cost of living.”

The statement said the presidential election is scheduled for January 2027 and maintained that projections concerning President Tinubu’s re-election should be treated as predictions rather than established outcomes.

“The people will deliver the verdict,” Shaibu said.