The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has reduced its global oil demand growth forecast for 2026 by more than 70%, from 1.4 million barrels per day (bpd) to 400,000 bpd, reflecting weaker-than-anticipated demand growth during the year.
The revised outlook was disclosed on Monday, October 12, 2026, by OPEC Secretary-General Haitham Al Ghais during a ministerial session titled Perspectives on Global Oil and Gas Markets at the 25th WPC Energy Congress in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
The announcement comes as Saudi Arabia faces renewed drone and missile threats following deadly attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport over the weekend.
Al Ghais explained that OPEC’s decision to lower its 2026 oil demand growth projection from 1.4 million bpd to 400,000 bpd represents a downward revision of approximately 71.4%, reflecting changing market conditions throughout the year.
Nigeria’s Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Senator Heineken Lokpobiri, also participated in the ministerial discussion.
Al Ghais emphasised the importance of sustained investment across the petroleum industry amid changing conditions in the global oil market.
The security concerns surrounding the congress follow Saturday’s attack on King Khalid International Airport in Riyadh, which killed at least 12 people and injured 309 others, according to Saudi authorities.
Other participating countries maintained their allocations, with Kuwait at 2.676 million bpd, Kazakhstan at 1.628 million bpd, Algeria at 1.007 million bpd and Oman at 841,000 bpd.
The decision extended the group’s pause in production increases, following four consecutive months of adjustments, as participating countries continued to assess global market conditions.
Nigeria’s crude oil production has improved in recent months, allowing the country to consistently meet or marginally exceed its OPEC quota of 1.5 million bpd, despite uncertainty surrounding global oil demand.
In August, combined crude oil and condensate production rose by 0.4% to approximately 1.678 million bpd, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). Crude-only output stood at 1.500 million bpd, meeting the quota for the fourth consecutive month.
