The World Bank projects Brent crude oil prices to decline to an average of $79 per barrel in 2027, down from $91 per barrel in 2026, as rising global supplies are expected to ease market tightness.
In its latest Commodity Markets Outlook, the lender said Brent prices could average almost $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, amid continued Middle East supply disruptions, tanker shortages and attacks on vessels.
However, the World Bank expects recent increases in crude shipments from the Gulf to be sustained, allowing global oil production to approach its 2025 level in 2027 and putting downward pressure on prices.
The World Bank expects global energy prices to rise by 32% year-on-year in 2026 before declining by 12% in 2027. Compared with its April forecasts, it revised its energy price projections upward by 7% for 2026 and 14% for 2027, reflecting supply disruptions that are expected to last longer but be less intense than previously anticipated.
The lender said the global oil market would remain in deficit in the fourth quarter of 2026, supporting higher prices before increased production eases supply constraints next year.
The expected reduction in consumption, combined with a recovery in crude production, forms part of the outlook for lower oil prices in 2027.
The revised forecast comes amid continued uncertainty over global energy supplies, with geopolitical tensions involving the United States and Iran contributing to fluctuations in crude prices.
However, the projected decline to $79 per barrel in 2027 will depend partly on the durability of crude shipments from the Gulf and whether global production recovers as anticipated.
