The Election Result Has Answered Them

The Osun election is over, and Governor Ademola Adeleke has won another term. That fact invites a revisit of the prophets, defectors and sages who explained why Osun voters must reject him. Hubris, the Greeks knew, often enters wearing wisdom’s costume and leaves carrying its shoes. In politics, certainty is often merely ignorance wearing a tailored suit.

The first lesson is elementary, yet apparently postgraduate in Nigeria: voters are not an audience waiting for pundits to announce the correct answer. Temitope Ajayi, a Senior Special Assistant to Mr President wanted the voters to elect a “CEO rather than an entertainer”. APC’s National Publicity Secretary, Mr Felix Morka called Adeleke first term “very dismal” and “lacklustre.” Benjamin Adereti called the administration a “colossal failure,” while Oluremi Omowaye predicted voters would remove him. Ajibola Basiru, Tajudeen Lawal and Iyiola Omisore joined the indictment. Their criticisms were legitimate; their certainty was the experiment.

The Court of Adjectives

One can accuse a government of failure; one cannot appoint oneself clerk of the voters’ conscience. “Dismal,” “lacklustre,” “colossal failure” and “incompetent” are adjectives, not polling units. A ballot does not admire rhetoric; it asks citizens what they think. This does not sanctify Adeleke or invalidate criticism. It demonstrates the difference between argument and verdict: one belongs to commentators, the other to citizens.

Then came the entertainment thesis. Ajayi and others treated Adeleke’s dancing as though Terpsichore had amended the Constitution. Monday Okpebholo, the Governor of Edo State mocked the dancing, questioned meeting attendance and joked about “dancing roads.” Bashir Ahmad, the Former Personal Assistant to President Buhari reportedly bookmarked Davido’s post, anticipating an APC victory and future victory lap. What a museum of premature triumph! As the Yoruba proverb says, when the drummer changes rhythm, the dancer must listen; here, the electorate changed the rhythm.

There is a deeper irony. Governance is not judged by whether a governor looks miserable while working. A dancing governor can fail; a solemn governor can fail magnificently. An exuberant politician can govern competently. The serious questions are roads, schools, health, jobs, debt, investment, institutions and outcomes. President Olusegun Obasanjo’s counsel to Adeleke – do not stop dancing, but work – contains more wisdom than the anti-dance industry. The dance is personality; the work is the test.

The Insiders’ Paradox

Morka, Adereti, Omowaye, Basiru, Lawal and Omisore should not confuse electoral disappointment with a prohibition on criticism. Democracy needs vigilant opposition. But the stronger the allegation, the stronger the evidence required. If the government was catastrophic, show figures, baselines, procurement records and outcomes. In the Republic of Evidence, adjectives are unemployed.

Then there are former insiders: Moyoade Lukman and Azeez Kazeem, who served as Adeleke’s aides before breaking ranks and campaigning against him. Lukman called his APC move a “homecoming”; Kazeem abandoned his appointment for Bola Oyebamiji. Yet a riddle remains: if the house was uninhabitable, why did the discovery arrive after you acquired a room key? They were inside the kitchen, not tourists at the window.

Dr Leye Olagbaju and Asamo Gbenga, from the Accord camp, also rejected Adeleke’s candidacy and questioned his leadership capacity. Yet Nigerian politics turns former companions into overnight Herodotuses, each suddenly possessing the definitive history of the man they once embraced. Proximity gives information, not omniscience. A former ally may know where the furniture is kept and still misunderstand why guests keep arriving.

The Missing Political Arithmetic

The APC and ADC also appear to have overlooked a stubborn feature of Osun politics: power shift. All three leading contenders – Ademola Adeleke, Bola Oyebamiji and Najeem Salaam – came from Osun West. Osun Central and Osun East could ask: if the West retains power now, when does our turn become plausible? Adeleke’s second term potentially creates a clearer succession horizon. Some voters may have seen not merely a candidate, but a timetable. Electoral arithmetic is rarely as simple as campaign arithmetic suggests.

This is Nigerian politics 101, though campaign strategists treat it like an optional seminar. Identity politics does not always arrive with drums and banners. Sometimes it whispers in compounds, markets, party meetings, families, traditional circles and WhatsApp groups. It asks: whose turn, from where, and after whom? Zoning can function as an informal bargain over inclusion where groups fear exclusion. Disliking that logic does not make it disappear.

The Humbling of the Sure

That is where campaign confidence became comic weakness. Critics saw a referendum on Adeleke’s performance; many voters were also seeing a referendum on succession. The opposition could present promises, yet voters could calculate geography, identity and tomorrow simultaneously. Politics is not Euclid’s geometry; it is a marketplace of memory, expectation, fear, interest and hope. The television winner may lose at the polling booth. Aristotle understood persuasion requires knowing the audience; Nigerian politics adds that audiences may smile politely and vote differently.

And so, certainty met the old proverb: the person who says the road is clear may be the one who has not looked around the bend. Oyebamiji ran a serious race and should not become a punchline. Salaam also contested seriously. Their defeat is not evidence of incompetence; their coalitions simply did not assemble enough votes. Democracy becomes vulgar when every winner becomes a genius and loser a fool.

After the Ballot

These political actors should resist explaining Osun back to Osun. Lukman and Kazeem may retain their convictions; Olagbaju and Gbenga theirs. Ajayi may keep believing in CEOs. Ahmad may keep his bookmark. Okpebholo may keep dancing around dancing. Morka can scrutinise. Basiru, Adereti, Omowaye, Lawal and Omisore can oppose. None must surrender principle; all should surrender the fiction that confidence equals knowledge.

For Adeleke, victory is not absolution. A second mandate is a heavier moral contract. He must make critics eat their words through roads that last, schools that function, hospitals that heal, agriculture that produces, jobs that endure, institutions that strengthen and public money that survives scrutiny. The finest reply to “entertainer” is development; the finest answer to “dismal” is performance.

Democracy is the institutionalisation of uncertainty: nobody owns the future, and nobody is entitled to permanent correctness. Socrates understood that wisdom begins with recognising the limits of knowledge. Shakespeare gave Prospero’s reminder that certainties are fragile. Parties that ask why predictions failed may become wiser; parties that blame voters will merely become louder.

The election has answered them all – not by proving Adeleke flawless, but by puncturing the conceit that declaration can substitute for persuasion. Osun voters weighed performance, personality, identity, geography, loyalty, fear, hope and succession, then chose. We may dispute their arithmetic, but cannot confiscate their answer. The ballot is the people’s footnote, sometimes rewriting the book.

Congratulations to His Excellency, Senator Ademola Nurudeen Jackson Adeleke, on his re-election. Let the music become measurable progress, not merely memorable choreography. Dance, Governor, but let every step move Osun forward; let every turn open a road, every rhythm create opportunity, every flourish produce measurable public good. Dance past the pothole, classroom deficit, hospital queue and unemployment line. Dance Osun into development, prosperity and institutional seriousness through 2030. If you do, your reply to the prophets will require no press release. The results will speak, and history will applaud.