Reasons Why Osun Election Is Different From Kwara 2027

The dust has finally settled on the much-touted Osun gubernatorial election 2026. The race generated interest not only in Osun, but across the country due to the many stakes involved. It is the off-cycle election preceding the 2027 general election.

Some bookmakers, therefore, use it as a guage for the forthcoming general election. But it must be stated that factors determining the outcome of elections differ, especially from place to place, because the variables, issues and stakes involved are in most cases not in consonance.

In Kwara, some opposition elements have been celebrating effusively over the victory of incumbent Governor Ademola Adeleke. They believe the Osun election is a direct verdict on Kwara. History however proves them wrong. Adeleke won in Osun in the previous election, but what was the outcome in Kwara when the general election was held? APC, under Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq, maintained a sweeping victory. Not a single elective position went to the opposition even when they are wont to ascribe Adeleke’s victory in Osun to their principal, Dr. Abubakar Bukola Saraki. Laughably, the same Saraki couldn’t secure victory in the election that mattered most to him in his base.

It is myopic to make a generic conclusion on Kwara based on the Osun guber election. In as much as some factors that played out in Osun can be likened to Kwara, the variables still differ sharply. Political scientists understand that no two elections are the same. Interestingly, what worked in favour of Governor Adeleke may well work against the Kwara PDP who are trying to tap from his ‘grace’.
Now let’s see the odds and analyse some of the factors.

Adeleke is a sitting governor: The power of incumbency plays a very significant role in any election. It gives the opportunity to control key resources, meet development needs, and largely determine the scale of political structures. Adeleke had resources at the state, including what is now obvious, a deep connection with the electorate. He could campaign with his four years.

The Kwara PDP, as currently composed, does not have such luxury. Apart from having a sordid past that even its members don’t want people to remember, PDP has been in opposition for two straight electoral cycles. Both the incumbency factor and institutional record are still with the APC, and it will work to its advantage in Kwara, however minute.

AbdulRazaq’s sterling performance: The sterling performance of Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq is also going to be a factor in the Kwara election. The average citizens who constitute the largest voting bloc do not really care about the infighting ongoing between the political elite. What they can connect to is the regular payment of their( workers) salaries, good road networks, support and incentives for trade and agriculture, infrastructure projects. On this, AbdulRazaq’s administration has been a clear departure from the past. Not only were civil servants owed several months of salaries under PDP, which made ‘gerigedi’ an official policy. In most of their offices, they didn’t have relevant facilities to aid their work. That has changed. AbdulRazaq established KWASSIP where entrepreneurs get access to grants and loans to scale their businesses. He isn’t making excuses for incompetence.

The quantum of projects across the states will bear impacts.

Adeleke is trusted, Kwara PDP is not: PDP is blighted by history of bad governance . On their watch, the Shonga farm scam happened. Several billions of Kwara’s fund were committed to this project with nothing spectacular to show for it. They also stole the future of Kwara youngsters when they allegedly diverted the UBEC funds and got the state blacklisted from the dividends of the UBEC interventions. The consequences were obvious in the large number of schools scattered across the three districts left to rot. On the contrary, UBEC had commended Governor AbdulRazaq for being consistent and committed to the counterpart funding initiative, and the results are obvious in the new face our school structures are taking with concomitant effect on the performance of our pupils, who have earned us laurels in national and international contests.

Kwara North equity and justice sympathy: The emergence of Kwara North-born Salihu Yakubu Danladi as APC flagbearer will contribute significantly to the bright chances of the party in the gubernatorial election. Not only will Kwara North residents vote for him massively because they have not tasted the gubernatorial seat since 1999, close to three decades now, all other fair-minded citizens from other regions including in Kwara Central will support the ticket.

APC candidate Danladi youth factor: Salihu Yakubu Danladi, who is the governorship standard bearer of APC, is a young, progressive man. Compared to other candidates across parties, he is in a position to benefit from young people’s sympathy votes. Young Kwarans see themselves in Danladi, and he is very close to the youth constituency than any other candidate.

National and Guber elections double effect: The Osun governorship election is an off-season election. Kwara’s governorship election will take place during the general election. The double effect of both national and gubernatorial elections will work in favour of Kwara APC. The Kwara APC tickets across board fulfil demands for equity, justice, balance, and fairness. That can hardly be said of Kwara PDP today.

Kwara PDP is fragmented: More than ever, Kwara PDP is fragmented today. Apart from battling internal legitimacy crisis, where another faction has emerged with Alhaji Ladi Hassan as its gubernatorial candidate, Saraki’s PDP has lost most of its commanders and mobilisers to the ADC and even APC. In contrast, some of the G15 members whom the PDP are hopeful of aligning with them didn’t even work for Governor AbdulRazaq, and he was still able to secure victory for APC. This is apart from the fact that most of them are open to reconciliation with the governor, as the party is not considered highly attractive. It is being tipped in the political circle that atleast 60% of G15 leaders will eventually align with the APC candidates.

The real bride of Kwara politics are the ordinary people. Notwithstanding, Kwara APC has been able to win both SDP and NNPP 2023 guber candidates to its side, further bolstering its chances against the PDP in the 2027 election.