Global 6G Connections To Reach 2.4bn in 2035

The research arm of the GSMA said the transition would begin gradually, with approximately 50 million 6G connections expected by the end of 2030, equivalent to about 0.5 per cent of the global mobile connections base, with its adoption projected to rise to 275 million in 2031 and nearly 740 million in 2032.

According to the forecast, 6G connections will cross the one-billion mark in 2033, reaching approximately 1.3 billion by the end of that year, before rising to 1.9 billion in 2034 and 2.4 billion in 2035. The figures point to a sharp acceleration after the initial commercial launch phase.

GSMA Intelligence said the first 6G cycle would occur in two phases, with 2030 to 2032 focused mainly on initial launches, network deployment and ecosystem development, while the period from 2033 onwards is expected to mark the beginning of global-scale operations.

However, the emergence of 6G is not expected to result in the immediate displacement of existing mobile technologies. GSMA forecasts that 5G will still account for about 60 per cent of global mobile connections by 2035, compared with 23 per cent for 6G and 17 per cent for 4G.

GSMA Intelligence, Head of Data Modelling and Forecasting, Matthew Iji,

said the 2.4 billion connections projected for 2035 should be viewed as a milestone rather than the end point of 6G development.

He noted that the technology would coexist with a much larger 5G base, while 4G would continue to serve significant portions of the market.

The adoption of 6G is also expected to be uneven across regions. GSMA Intelligence forecasts that China will account for more than half of global 6G connections by 2035, while North America and East Asia are also expected to record high adoption levels. Europe is projected to have about one-quarter of connections on 6G by the end of the period.

In contrast, 6G adoption is expected to remain below 10 per cent in several emerging-market regions by 2035, largely because many of these markets would still be completing the transition from 4G to 5G. This means operators in developing markets may continue investing heavily in existing networks even as advanced economies begin large-scale 6G deployment.

Meanwhile, the expected growth in mobile data traffic is likely to increase pressure on network infrastructure. GSMA Intelligence forecasts global mobile network traffic will rise from about 204 exabytes (EB) per month in 2025 to 846EB per month by 2035, representing more than a fourfold increase and annual growth of roughly 15 per cent.

The organisation said traffic growth would increasingly be driven by artificial intelligence, extended reality (XR), connected devices, cameras, sensors and 5G fixed wireless access, alongside video.

Similarly, the changing traffic pattern is expected to increase demand for uplink capacity, lower latency, network reliability and greater automation, while GSMA’s Vision 2040 analysis estimates that 2–2.5GHz of mid-band spectrum could be required in high-density locations between 2035 and 2040, compared with about 1GHz currently identified for mobile in most countries.

Meanwhile, for Nigeria and other emerging markets, the forecast highlights the need to balance preparation for future technologies with the continuing expansion of existing broadband networks.

With more than three-quarters of global mobile connections still expected to use earlier technologies in 2035, the GSMA outlook suggests that the 6G era will initially be characterised less by a wholesale replacement of 4G and 5G than by the coexistence of multiple generations of mobile networks.